Maria Martin 1
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
The overarching goal of EPICC is to strengthen resilience against disruptive whether phenomena and climate change at national, regional and local level in three partner countries: India, Peru and Tanzania. The project will cover four major complementary fields: Climate, Hydrology and Water Resources, Agriculture and Migration.
Next to close cooperation with national ministries and authorities (e.g. national meteorological services) as well as end users in relevant sectors (e.g. local water managers and farmer associations), research cooperation is a major goal. Co-production of relevant knowledge, based on state of the art research in the related fields, will lay the foundation for embedding improved climate services into sectors impacted by climate change through multi-lateral partnerships between sciences, governments and relevant end-users.
One of the research topics within the field of Climate is the long-term forecasting of El Niño. A method based on network analysis1 has been successfully tested to forecast the 2015 El Niño more than one year in advance2. The method is based on the observation that a large-scale cooperative mode is building up between the El Niño basin and the rest of the Pacific Ocean in the calendar year before a pronounced El Niño event. The analysis of the link strength between these two regions serves as the crucial indicator for the cooperative mode.